“Good Russians” promoted Belarus’ Coordination Council elections. It didn’t help

2,113 Belarusians voted in the Coordination Council elections. That is three times fewer than in 2024. This time, however, the elections were even promoted by popular “good Russian” bloggers — Ilya Varlamov and Maxim Katz.

But did their advertising affect voter turnout? Euroradio obtained data from the elections’ technical organizer, Pavel Liber, on every ballot issued — that is, we could see only the exact time when someone voted, and nothing else.

What about turnout?

Both advertisements by blogger Ilya Varlamov were shown before voting started (the first one a day before, the second a few hours before), so it is impossible to assess their impact on the election process.

However, the voting peak on the first day is a natural phenomenon. At the same time, just over 20% of all votes were cast during that period (fewer than 450). In other words, even if Varlamov’s promotion had any effect, it was minimal.

Meanwhile, Katz’s advertisement was published in a video on May 15 at around 5:00 p.m. There was no surge in voting, and the number of ballots issued matched average figures. The same pattern can be seen on the morning of May 16. Moreover, May 15 was generally a weak day in terms of turnout.

Below are two charts: the cumulative number of votes by day and a “heat map” showing the dynamics of ballot issuance.

Who Paid for the Advertising?

Representatives of blogger Ilya Varlamov confirmed that the promotion was commercial. As Euroradio found out, such a promotional slot costs four thousand dollars. Maxim Katz stated that he promoted the elections free of charge.

Commenting on the advertising issue, Coordination Council Speaker Artsiom Bruhan said that the ads had been ordered by international partners. Simply put, by donors. At the same time, nobody consulted the Coordination Council itself.

/ automated translation