How much does Belarus depend on Russia — and what would it cost to change that?
Where would the money come from? Who would pay for it? / LookByMedia
What would it take for Belarus to reduce its dependence on Russia and move closer to the European Union? According to economist Dzmitry Kruk, the transition would come with costs — but they could be largely offset by European support.
“If we assume there will be no external support and consider one of the more challenging scenarios, the price would not be paid directly, but indirectly. It could take the form of a temporary decline in economic output and a roughly 10% drop in real wages. That would be the cost,” Kruk predicts.
But that is a scenario without outside support for the Belarusian economy. What would support cost, and who would pay for it?
“If we ask a different question — how to make this transition period as smooth and as painless as possible — then additional support would certainly be very helpful. It could help offset, for example, the negative impact of higher energy prices.
Even the relatively modest support packages announced by the European Union back in 2020, worth several billion euros, could compensate for almost all of the potential losses at what we call point B.
For example, in the baseline scenario without any support, this hypothetical point B would be about 3.9% worse than the current status quo. But if EU assistance is used and several positive mechanisms are activated from the very beginning, those losses would be almost unnoticeable.”
“The same logic applies to the transition period itself. If we want to avoid major losses and make the move from point A to point B as smooth as possible, then the question of support becomes very relevant. Someone would need to help.
In practical terms, Belarus would need a kind of financial safety cushion. This could take the form of external loans or other support mechanisms.
In the most challenging scenario, the amount required could reach as much as €10 billion.
That is a substantial sum, but it is not something catastrophic or unmanageable,” the economist said.
What if Russia tries to obstruct the process?
“If Russia’s response goes beyond simple resistance and turns into an active effort to block opportunities for normal economic cooperation — not through military means, as in Ukraine, but through economic and political pressure — then the additional costs could be higher.
In that case, it would be important to ensure that ordinary people do not bear the burden of those losses and that the transition does not become deeper or more prolonged. That is why support from the European Union would be highly desirable to offset those effects,” Kruk said.
